RandyMelchert.com

Monday, April 25 – GAB issues order for recount

1:30 – 3:30 PM – GAB Conference Call with County Clerks (Watch Online)

Wednesday, April 27 – Recount starts at 9 AM

Tuesday, May 3rd – Special Election for AD 60, 83, 94 Map

June 14th, 2011: Recall Primary for SD 18, SD 32 (tentative) - Map

June 28th, 2011: Recall Primary for SD 8, 10, 12, 14, 22 (tentative) – Map

July 12th, 2011: Recall General for SD 18, SD 32 (tentative) - Map

July 26th, 2011: Recall General for SD 8, 10, 12, 14, 22 (tentative) - Map

Today’s Schedule:

8:30 AM Milwaukee, WI – Continuing Proofing

2:30 PM Milwaukee County Canvass Complete

4:00 PM Prosser Declares Victory!

Video from today:

2:22 pm – FINAL #S:

• Statewide:
• Prosser: 752,323
• Kloppenburg: 745,007
• Scatter: 1,550.
• Final County Tally.
• Final Margin: 7,316.
• Total votes cast:  1,498,880.

1:54 pm – count done, correcting #s for GAB

1:10 pm – Better mic hopefully at our feed http://72.13.86.202:7070/live.html 

12:45 PM - Check out our livestream! (audio now working)

12:40 PM - So far today prosser up 1 net.

Canvass going well – for real time updates check @Melchert

Today’s Schedule: 9:00 AM Milwaukee, WI – Continuing Proofing

4:29 pm – Milwaukee County Proofing adjourned for the day – final results expected tomorrow. Rechecked our spreadsheet numbers today. Current numbers: Prosser 752,320 – Klopp 744,997. Margin of victory – 7,323. 7,486 votes or less qualifies for a government-paid recount.

3:25 pm – @KyleMaichle52: Absentee ballots reconciled – no net change on vote totals

2:17 pm – 58 Absentee ballots from Wards 48 and 103 of city of Milwaukee are being hand counted.

Today’s Schedule:

8:30 AM Medford, WI – Taylor County Draw Down – One Ballot

9:00 AM Milwaukee, WI – Continuing Canvass & Proofing

6:04 PM – A reader passes on this link: Fiscally responsible Prosser should forgo $$$ WI recount (DailyKos). Because a 7,000 vote margin is far above “a fairly comfortable margin of just over 200 votes” – a recount that is “free” to the candidate will cost the state “well over one million dollars.”

4:05 PM – Milwaukee County is wrapping up for the day. Tomorrow is the new finish line projection. 38 wards in Milwaukee, 2 in Wauwatosa (22, 24), 2 in Oak Creek (4-6, 7-9), and 1 in West Allis (13) need to be reverified. 1 in West Allis and 1 in Oak Creek need a draw down (see Taylor County).

3:51 PM – Made some corrections to our county count – thanks for pointing out typos. Latest #s: Prosser 752,320 to Kloppenburg 744,995. Prosser 50.25% – Kloppenburg 49.75%. Margin of victory – 7,325. 162 votes within the threshold for free recount.

3:47 PM – from North Shore – “We will not be done in Milwaukee County today. I spoke with Lisa Weiner and she told me 38 wards in the city have to be re-verified”

12:42 PM – from North Shore Strategy Group: “We may expect results to come in before the end of business today. There could be a presser later today.”

12:12 PM – Kloppenburg loses a vote in the Taylor County drawdown of Medford District 2 (Wards 3, 4). A drawdown occurs typically with an improperly accepted absentee ballot. (Coincidentally a friend of mine was down by one on election night, after a drawdown was tied, and won on a coin flip). Sauk county also reports to the GAB – no change. In our county count, Prosser is up to a 7,272 vote lead, with 50.24% of the vote. If Prosser netted 215 votes in Milwaukee (still yet to report) a recount would cost Kloppenburg over $30,000.

11:54 AM – Apparently the GAB posted Milwaukee up for a little bit in its unofficial canvass. Going off the latest #s from the wards in our county count, Prosser is up to a 7,271 vote lead, with 50.24% of the vote.

10:47 AM Update - kylemaichle52 “An employee for the Milwaukee County Elections Commission is beginning to enter in the final numbers for the suburban wards.”

Here’s what’s going on in Taylor: “RECONVENE TO CANVASS THE ELECTIONRESULTS FROM THE CITY OF MEDORDDISTRICT 3 (W-5&6) REQUIRED DUE TODRAW DOWN OF ONE BALLOT CONTAININGA VOTE FOR SUPREME COURT JUSTICEFROM THE APRIL 5, 2011 SPRING ELECTION.”

Streaming live, replayed, and on-demand at ustream.tv/channel/Melchert

Today’s Schedule: Streaming from Milwaukee County Courthouse 2:30 PM – Close.

The News: City of Milwaukee has completed its canvass of election material, and sent them to the Franklin Corrections House to be guarded by Sheriff David Clarke until this am when they will go to the County Election Commission to be canvassed. Look for a live stream from 2:30 PM – Close.

Streaming live, replayed, and on-demand at ustream.tv/channel/Melchert

This am 9 am – 10:30 am – Milwaukee City canvass live stream (archived online)
This afternoon 2:05 pm – the GAB press conference on illegal donations

P.S. Thanks to the people who have been donating to support coverage of the recount saga

5:20 pm – Word is City of Milwaukee has finished its canvass. Sheriff Clarke to guard ballots till County Canvass. Some minor discrepancies were resolved but no numbers.

2:58 pm Ramona Kitzinger retracts her statement “I’m not going to stand here and tell you something that’s not true”

2:07 pm Since 15 tv stations are covering the GAB conference I won’t stream it.

11:00 AM: Updated County Vote Count of Canvass of WI Supreme Court Election – awaiting final GAB #s from Crawford, Milwaukee, Oneida, Sauk

This AM: Photos from the Milwaukee City canvass – not a review mind you, but an actual canvass

Checked the county election commission but they were closed for the weekend. County Sheriff is guarding it.

Watch our 2 live feeds of the review: Mobile Camera #1 – Static Camera #2

County Vote Count of Canvass of WI Supreme Court Election

NEW: Waukesha County Municipality Breakout

10:04 PM – For all the conspiracy theorists – here’s the official city of Brookfield returns. From election night. Also added a spreadsheet on Waukesha County Municipalities.

8:19 PM - TMJ4 Coverage of the day’s events

8:07 PM – Waukesha County Clerk’s review of the canvass is over. 1,083 unique viewers tuned in to the static camera feed, for 382 total viewer hours.

3:15 pm – Milwaukee Journal just picked us up.

3:03 pm – County clerk reminds people that they may not have a pencil in their hand while touching the poll books.

2:59 pm – Kloppenburg’s campaign manager is here now.

1:42 pm - JSOnline has a spreadsheet up of the results of the county canvasses statewide.

1:24 pm – We’re back online – and canvassers and clerks want to know where they can watch the stream

12:40pm – taking a break until 1:10 pm – lunch

4/9 12:04 PM – 4th hour of canvass review – BTW from the Milwaukee Journal: “Justice David Prosser appears to have won re-election, and that’s something – barring some other bizarre revelation – that all sides should accept.”

4/9 11:58 AM – My favorite quote of the week “We went over everything and made sure all the numbers jived up and they did…everything we went over yesterday afternoon and today, all those numbers jived up and we’re satisfied that it’s correct. And I’m with the Democratic Party, Vice Chair of Waukesha County, so I’m not going to stand here and tell you something that’s not true.” - Ramona Kitzinger

4/9 11:44 AM – Again, this is not a recount, this is a review of the official canvass. The main goal here is to check the total number of voters is my understanding. The Kloppenburg team has sheets to log the total number of electors, ballots cast, same day registration, etc.

4/9 11:39 AM – Here’s what you’re seeing – there are the poll “books” that have a computer printout of every registered voter in the municipality. When you go to the polls, the poll workers give you a number that indicates your order of voting that day. The number is handwritten in the poll book. The Kloppenburg reviewers are counting the numbers in the books to make sure the totals match. In the back of the book is the “same day registrations.”

4/9 11:27 AM – Thanks to Charlie Sykes for retweeting our feed and MacIver for carrying us. Right now 34 people are watching the UStream feed. Thanks to @MissPronouncer as well!

4/9 11:09 AM - We’re starting the third hour of the canvass review in Waukesha County. County and village clerks are going to get the next batch of “books” containing all the reg. voters. Each Klopp reviewer is seated across from a municipal clerk. If they have questions the county clerk comes over. Reviewers may handle the “book” but not the “tape”.

4/9 10:07 AM – Just added a second stream of the Kloppenburg canvass via Livestream or you can watch our roving iPad on our first stream or both!

4/9 9:57 AM - Kloppenburg people are on outside of table, city clerks are on the inside. Reviewers are not allowed to have a writing utensil while touching the poll lists

4/9 9:17 AM – Live stream of Kloppenburg review of Waukesha County canvass Video

4/8 9:03 PM – Trempeleau County is in. No change. Will be covering the Waukesha incident tomorrow. Reportedly the Kloppenburg campaign will be reviewing records. Will be live streaming starting either 8 am or 9 am.

4/8 5:52 PM – With the reports JSOnline has of Milwaukee County – we have at least rumors on everything but Trempeleau County – currently Prosser 751,990 – Kloppenburg 745,266. Prosser: 50.23%. Right now its a good 700+ votes within the margin for a free recount.

4/8 5:29 PM – 61 of 72 counties have reported to GAB. 68 of 72 counties we have rumors. Prosser has 7,254 vote lead, but anything less than 7,482 is subject to free recount.

4/8 12:19 PM - 54 of 72 counties have reported to GAB, 63 of 72 counties we have some word on. Prosser has 50.24% of the vote so far.

4/8 11:54 AM - City of Milwaukee ballots are awaiting transport to Milwaukee County – under heavy security

4/8 11:47 AM - We have tips but no official from Ashland, Brown, Dane, Kenosha, Kewaunee, Lincoln, Marathon, Walworth, and Winnebago

4/8 11:44 AM – Counties we have no word yet from: Iron, Jefferson, Milwaukee, Oneida, Outagamie, Richland, Sauk, Trempeleau, Wood.

4/8 11:36 AM – Been adding in official #s. Currently Prosser gained 7,478 votes over AP count. Threshold for a free recount is 7,482. Prosser currently leads Kloppenburg by 7,254 – 228 votes under the free recount threshold. Current total: Prosser 751,890-Klopp 744,636

4/8 10:12 AM – GAB is reporting official canvasses as they come in. Adding to our County by County Vote Count of Supreme Court

4/8 10:09 AM – Dane County canvass is done – Klopp +39 net countywide. Possible change of 6 votes that were filed in Green County but should be Dane County. No net effect statewide though.

4/8 10:01 AM – On ward 133 – plowing thru the vacant wards. Dane Co’s total will adjust by only ~40 from AP.

4/8 9:49 AM – On ward 99 of city of Madison. Kloppenburg has added 3 votes today – and there are about 50 mostly vacant wards left.

4/8 9:29 AM – Here’s our County by County Vote Count of Supreme Court with AP #s in – adding in canvass #s now

4/8 9:15 AM – Sarah Palin got a vote for Judge, Branch 9 in Dane County, City of Madison Ward 72.

4/8 8:55 AM – LIVE stream of Dane County Canvass Board Friday – counting the last few wards in Madison…

Great Pix @ FairlyConservative:

And I made Channel3000….

Statement: Steve Ponto, Mayor of Brookfield: “It’s ironic that the vote by the City of Brookfield, which Justice Prosser won with 75%, would have been inadvertently left out of the election count by Waukesha County. That is what we have a vote canvas for and the error was caught. It is important to note that the City’s initial count was confirmed exactly by the City’s own canvas. Our numbers were transmitted accurately to the County. The error was when the County transmitted the numbers to the Associated Press. The City’s voting statistics were correctly posted on the City website on election night.” (9:05 PM)

• Start of day: Prosser -204.
• Brown: +1
• Buffalo: -2
• Burnett: +34
• Dane: +20 Klopp w/o city Madison,
• Dane: Madison: Klopp +15 in city Madison with 62% in. Canvass resumes tomorrow.
• Door: -12
• Grant County: -113 Prosser
• Iowa: -30 Prosser
• Kenosha: +60 Prosser
• La Crosse County: +10 Prosser
• Lafayette -14 Prosser.
• Langland -5
• Lincoln County +3
• Manitowoc – 10
• Ozaukee: +1 Prosser
• Pepin County: -6 for Prosser,
• Portage County: -91 Prosser
• Rusk County: -31
• Shawano County: -64 Prosser
• Taylor County: +2 Prosser? (2 more Prosser over AP count)
• Vernon: -24
• Washburn: -5
• Washington: +1
• Waupaca: +1
• Waukesha: +7582 Prosser
• Winnebago +244 Prosser.
• End of day: Prosser +7,000+ statewide

Follow @WisconsinReport on Twitter for latest counts and WisPolitics for more counts

AP old #s

Watch Dane County canvass live (ended for April 7 – will resume tomorrow)

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/melchert

Heres a write in log – should Jon Kloppenberg get a vote? (Town of Madison Tally Sheet). She was awarded all 4 on a 2-1 vote.

The big 2011 Supreme Court race is on for Tuesday night. What do you watch for? How do you predict who will win? The key will be voter turnout in a few key counties. (Again this is a gross oversimplification of countless variables but its helpful to get a ballpark idea of how to measure the results).

For this election – head back to 2008 to find a similar type election with two vastly different candidates in a heated contest with controversial ads and a close result. The biggest variable is the power of incumbency for Supreme Court Justices – how much deference is given to an incumbent Justice? Discounting that for the moment and using the 2008 Gableman/Butler race as our benchmark, Gableman won with 51.35% of the vote (discounting write-ins). Assuming all things equal – Prosser should get 51.35% of the vote as well.

However, the nature of each race will motivate voters differently – hence the need to monitor results in a few key areas. The final vote will depend on:

• Margin of victory in key areas
• Voter turnout in key areas

Pretty simple, right? So what are the key areas? Generally your most polarizing counties, some bellweather areas, and your potential curve balls.

• City of Madison – Home base for Kloppenburg. Gableman got a mere 18.69% of the vote from within the city limits. For Kloppenburg to win, she needs to get 80%+ of the vote, and to significantly increase turnout. If turnout jumps 150% from 2008 as expected, look for Kloppenburg to get around 70,000 votes to 15k for Prosser in the city. A resulting 55k vote margin would be a formidable start to the evening. The heavily competitive mayoral race in Madison will ratchet things up even above the incessant protests.
• City of Milwaukee – Not quite as a landslide as Madison, but still Kloppenburg country. Gableman got only 33.87% of the vote here. Turnout will be higher given the county executive race, but not as high as city of Madison.
• Rest of Dane County - Gableman got 36.09% of the vote here. Turnout is high but exact extent is questionable given it being outside the mayoral zone.
• Rest of Milwaukee County - Gableman took 51.04% of the vote. If Prosser can hold the Milwaukee Suburbs – that will be a key area for him. Conversely – if Kloppenburg runs up a win here – it could make the difference. For reference countywide including City of Milwaukee, in 2008 Walker won the County Exec race with 60% while Gableman only took 40%. Interestingly – if that # holds steady – 1/3 of Stone’s voters would also vote for Kloppenburg. Key municipality to watch: Cudahy. Cudahy broke almost 50/50 with a slight tilt for Gableman in 2008.
• Waukesha County. If Prosser is to survive, he needs to see a big turnout in Waukesha County. Early #s show a 50% increase over 2008, and that is where Gableman ran up his score with 66.84% of the vote in Waukesha County, and got a net 20k vote advantage. If Prosser can get another 10k net votes out of the County, they will come in very handy. The challenge is the lack of local races in Menomonee Falls and other municipalities, and just a contested county judicial race countywide. Talk radio made a difference in the massive turnout for the 2010 gubernatorial primaries, and it may make an impact again.
• Washington County. Like Waukesha County, just smaller and slightly more conservative. Gableman came within one tenth of one percent of hitting 70% of the vote share here – but picked up less than 10k net votes. With a 50% higher turnout here, look for a net 13k pickup. The hotly contested village board race in Richfield will help increase turnout, as will the school board, mayoral, and city council battles in West Bend.
• Outagamie County. Will Prosser’s home county help their favored son? Gableman picked up 52% of the vote here making it almost a Bellweather in that it was just .74% above the rest of the state, so if Prosser gets a “favored son” bonus – it will help counteract the massive turnout in Madison. However, with the Appleton Post Crescent backing Kloppenburg, don’t expect a unanimous result. Nearby Brown County will be also worth watching.

So what’s the projection? Depends on voter turnout. Holding vote percentages steady from 2008 – if the City of Madison saw voter turnout double from 2008 – Prosser would win statewide by less than a thousand votes. However that would leave voter turnout at just 37% – and the City projects turnout possibly into the 50s.

Cranking up voter turnout 150% from 2008 in Madison, and suburban Dane County as well as Waukesha and Washington 50% would yield a win for Prosser by a mere 500-some votes  statewide on statewide turnout of 21-22%.

If voter turnout in city of Madison hit 55% – that would be a massive help to the Kloppenburg campaign unless Waukesha County (interestingly usually the last county to report their results) comes through exceptionally strong.

Hopefully these calculations help you make sense of the race – and make your evening election results watching more informative.