The big 2011 Supreme Court race is on for Tuesday night. What do you watch for? How do you predict who will win? The key will be voter turnout in a few key counties. (Again this is a gross oversimplification of countless variables but its helpful to get a ballpark idea of how to measure the results).
For this election – head back to 2008 to find a similar type election with two vastly different candidates in a heated contest with controversial ads and a close result. The biggest variable is the power of incumbency for Supreme Court Justices – how much deference is given to an incumbent Justice? Discounting that for the moment and using the 2008 Gableman/Butler race as our benchmark, Gableman won with 51.35% of the vote (discounting write-ins). Assuming all things equal – Prosser should get 51.35% of the vote as well.
However, the nature of each race will motivate voters differently – hence the need to monitor results in a few key areas. The final vote will depend on:
- Margin of victory in key areas
- Voter turnout in key areas
Pretty simple, right? So what are the key areas? Generally your most polarizing counties, some bellweather areas, and your potential curve balls.
- City of Madison – Home base for Kloppenburg. Gableman got a mere 18.69% of the vote from within the city limits. For Kloppenburg to win, she needs to get 80%+ of the vote, and to significantly increase turnout. If turnout jumps 150% from 2008 as expected, look for Kloppenburg to get around 70,000 votes to 15k for Prosser in the city. A resulting 55k vote margin would be a formidable start to the evening. The heavily competitive mayoral race in Madison will ratchet things up even above the incessant protests.
- City of Milwaukee – Not quite as a landslide as Madison, but still Kloppenburg country. Gableman got only 33.87% of the vote here. Turnout will be higher given the county executive race, but not as high as city of Madison.
- Rest of Dane County - Gableman got 36.09% of the vote here. Turnout is high but exact extent is questionable given it being outside the mayoral zone.
- Rest of Milwaukee County - Gableman took 51.04% of the vote. If Prosser can hold the Milwaukee Suburbs – that will be a key area for him. Conversely – if Kloppenburg runs up a win here – it could make the difference. For reference countywide including City of Milwaukee, in 2008 Walker won the County Exec race with 60% while Gableman only took 40%. Interestingly – if that # holds steady – 1/3 of Stone’s voters would also vote for Kloppenburg. Key municipality to watch: Cudahy. Cudahy broke almost 50/50 with a slight tilt for Gableman in 2008.
- Waukesha County. If Prosser is to survive, he needs to see a big turnout in Waukesha County. Early #s show a 50% increase over 2008, and that is where Gableman ran up his score with 66.84% of the vote in Waukesha County, and got a net 20k vote advantage. If Prosser can get another 10k net votes out of the County, they will come in very handy. The challenge is the lack of local races in Menomonee Falls and other municipalities, and just a contested county judicial race countywide. Talk radio made a difference in the massive turnout for the 2010 gubernatorial primaries, and it may make an impact again.
- Washington County. Like Waukesha County, just smaller and slightly more conservative. Gableman came within one tenth of one percent of hitting 70% of the vote share here – but picked up less than 10k net votes. With a 50% higher turnout here, look for a net 13k pickup. The hotly contested village board race in Richfield will help increase turnout, as will the school board, mayoral, and city council battles in West Bend.
- Outagamie County. Will Prosser’s home county help their favored son? Gableman picked up 52% of the vote here making it almost a Bellweather in that it was just .74% above the rest of the state, so if Prosser gets a “favored son” bonus – it will help counteract the massive turnout in Madison. However, with the Appleton Post Crescent backing Kloppenburg, don’t expect a unanimous result. Nearby Brown County will be also worth watching.
So what’s the projection? Depends on voter turnout. Holding vote percentages steady from 2008 – if the City of Madison saw voter turnout double from 2008 – Prosser would win statewide by less than a thousand votes. However that would leave voter turnout at just 37% – and the City projects turnout possibly into the 50s.
Cranking up voter turnout 150% from 2008 in Madison, and suburban Dane County as well as Waukesha and Washington 50% would yield a win for Prosser by a mere 500-some votes statewide on statewide turnout of 21-22%.
If voter turnout in city of Madison hit 55% – that would be a massive help to the Kloppenburg campaign unless Waukesha County (interestingly usually the last county to report their results) comes through exceptionally strong.
Hopefully these calculations help you make sense of the race – and make your evening election results watching more informative.
