RandyMelchert.com

Overview: This is a big district covering parts of 11 counties. Unions have put in over $500,000 via direct independent expenditures into this race (MacIver).

The Closest: Simac v. Holperin is looking to be the closest race of the two Democratic recalls tomorrow.  Red Racing Horses commissioned a poll and claims it is 51-49 for Holperin. Daily Kos is saying 55-41.

The Issue: Jim Holperin was one of the 14 senators who fled the state, and was caught by the Rockford Tea Party at the Clocktower Inn. Hence the recalls began as an attempt to force them to come back home.

The Good: Prosser won this district with 55.2%. Walker got 57%. And Holperin was barely re-elected in the landslide 2008 year with 51% of the vote.

The Questionable:

Independents: 43% of voters are Independents according to RRH, 39% according to DailyKos. It’s a very rural, independent area. 

College vote: Unlike Harsdorf (UW-River Falls, UW-Stout), Hopper (UW-Oshkosh), or Kapanke (UW-La Crosse), Holperin’s district doesn’t have any UW System colleges. Even UW-Marinette – a two year campus – is just outside the district. So the absence of the predominantly Democrat student vote won’t help Kim Simac. In fact, this is the one Wisconsin district that the GOP wants during the school year.

That’s because the only college within the 12^th Senate District is Northland International University in Dunbar, WI. With the support of conservatives affiliated with Northland, voters in Dunbar went for Scott Walker 85% to only 14% for Tom Barrett. This made Dunbar a solid 20 points more conservative than the next most conservative town in the district. However, with the students gone, will Dunbar be the force that Simac needs to pull out a win?

The Bad: Holperin is endorsed by the NRA – he does have a consistent pro-gun record. Can Simac convince voters that Holperin is out of touch when he has an “A” rating from the NRA?

The Expectation: 50,000 vote turnout is my guess based on other recalls turnout

Last Time:

The Counties:

Florence – GOP needs Turnout. Right on the border with the UP (Upper Peninsula) this GOP stronghold went 57% for Tiffany in 08, 65% for Walker, and 62% for Prosser. If Simac can get 900+ votes here, she can start building a margin of victory.

Forest – Holperin needs Turnout. 56% for Holperin in 2008. 53% for Walker, 56% for Prosser. High turnout elections – the county goes Democrat. Low turnout elections – the county goes Republican.

Langlade – GOP needs Turnout. Antigo is the county seat of the 4^th most important county in the district. District went 54% for Tiffany against Holperin in 08, 61% for Walker, and 58% for Prosser. Turnout is important here. If total turnout is greater than 6,000 votes, Simac should be happy.

Lincoln – GOP needs Turnout. Second to watch after Oneida County, the county went slightly Republican in 08. If the margins go sharper GOP – will be a good night for Simac. Merrill is the county seat here.

Marathon – Just the outskirts of this county are in SD12, but they will tilt slightly conservative.

Marinette – Home to Northland International University, we’ll see if Dunbar can push the county into the Simac column.

Menominee – Holperin needs Turnout. Not the Menomonee Falls of Waukesha County that gave Darling the win. This county/Indian reservation went 86% for Holperin, 78% for Barrett, 63% for Kloppenburg. Turnout here could decide the election: 1,280 votes in Nov 08, 752 in Nov 10, and 382 in Apr 11. Low turnout will hurt Holperin – as the Republicans in this county turnout almost every election (177 in Nov 08, 141 in the “low turnout” April election). Democrat turnout ranges from 241 in April 11 to 1,103 in Nov 2008. Even though it is historically the lowest number of votes in the district, its intensity gives a margin of 200 votes to 1,000 votes to the Democrat, a margin that is needed if Holperin will stay.

Oconto – Just the far northwest fringe of this county is in the district. Fairly split.

Oneida – The Bellweather. 25% of the voters in SD12 live in Oneida County and Rhinelander is the county seat here. Went 55% for Walker, 52% for Prosser, but also went 54% for Holperin in 2008, giving Holperin 88% of his total margin of victory. Rhinelander has some of the most Democrat wards in the district outside of Menominee County, but can the strongly GOP Minocqua and the rest of the county offset Rhinelander? Watch the results election night here.

Shawano – Outlier parts of Shawano County are in the district, and while the county is strongly GOP, these wards went for Holperin with 54%.

Vilas – GOP needs to persuade. Ticket Splitters. Eagle River’s the county seat here, and the county went 62% for Walker, 60% for Prosser, but it went for Holperin by a scant 0.05%.

The big story on 538 is that a statewide recall of Gov. Walker would be close.

Duh.

See April Re-election of Justice David Prosser. That was close.

But here’s the trend to watch:

• SD2 – Cowles +3 over Prosser
• SD8 – Darling -3 under Prosser
• SD10 – Harsdorf +10 over Prosser
• SD14 – Olsen -3 under Prosser
• SD18 – Hopper -4 under Prosser
• SD32 – Kapanke +3 over Prosser

3 candidates outperformed Prosser (1 exceptionally well!) and 3 candidates slightly underperformed. One of the underperformers was the Senator with personal problems that went public. Net result: +1% over Prosser. So if Walker did get up for a recall election – he’d win – and this time outside the margin of recount .

If Fred Clark, Jennifer Shilling, or Sandy Pasch wins any of their recalls on August 9, it will likely take a week or more to certify the result, so sometime mid-August they will resign their Assembly seat to take their new Senate seat.

Meaning that there may be vacant Assembly District(s), requiring a special election to fill the Assembly seat(s).

Thus:

• August 23rdish – the Governor would call for a special election
• September 6th – filing deadline for special election
• October 4th – primary for the special election
• November 1st – special election general

Recall signatures are posted online at the GAB Website. 4,700 pages of them.

As are some of the affidavits:

It’s May 17th. The election was 42 days ago. The recount is still ongoing.

What’s left:

• City of Muskego (all)
• City of New Berlin (partial)
• City of Pewaukee (all)
• City of Waukesha (partial)
• Village of Pewaukee (all)
• Village of Summit (all)
• and my favorite – Village of Menomonee Falls

Currently we’re streaming live the GAB hearing on the recalls and recounts now

What are the stats behind the recalls? Check out our recall watch stat tracker spreadsheet. All the stats and numbers to build your scenarios to figure out who will survive and who will dust off their resume. Then check the recall scorecard to see how far along they are in the process.

Real Clear Politics has the numbers analyzed – and the Dems have an incredible strategy – pick off the weakest two in the 1st wave, then build momentum and go for a 2nd wave, and if things roll along – the 3rd wave will be even more vulnerable. Compare the tiers to the order the signatures were turned in…

What’s the count on the recalls and what does the summer calendar look like?

Recall Target	Recallee	Date Submitted	Verification Deadline	Primary Date?	General Date?
	Dan Kapanke Republican SD 32 La Crosse	April 1, 2011	May 1, 2011	June 14th, 2011 Jennifer Shilling (D) Dan Kapanke (R)	July 12th, 2011
	Randy Hopper Republican SD 18 Fond du Lac	April 7, 2011	May 7, 2011	June 14th, 2011 Jessica King (D) Randy Hopper (R)	July 12th, 2011
	Luther Olsen Republican SD 14 Ripon	April 18, 2011	May 18, 2011	June 28th, 2011 Luther Olsen (R) Fred Clark (D)	July 26th, 2011
	Sheila Harsdorf Republican SD 10 River Falls	April 19, 2011	May 19, 2011	June 28th, 2011	July 26th, 2011
	Robert Wirch Democrat SD 22 Pleasant Prairie	April 21, 2011	May 21, 2011	June 28th, 2011	July 26th, 2011
	Dave Hansen Democrat SD 30 Green Bay	April 21, 2011	May 21, 2011	June 28th, 2011	July 26th, 2011
	Jim Holperin Democrat SD 12 Eagle River	April 21, 2011	May 21, 2011	June 28th, 2011	July 26th, 2011
	Alberta Darling Republican SD 8 Menomonee Falls	April 21, 2011	May 21, 2011	June 28th, 2011	July 26th, 2011

First, its important to remember there are two aspects to a recall: collecting the signatures, and winning the election.

1) Collecting the Signatures.

With an extraordinarily effective operation supplemented by $500,000 in progressive fundraising already done, look for a recall organizing strength of 66% on the Democrat side – meaning that they collect 66% of the signatures of people who voted for Tom Barrett in the fall election. This means that two of every three people who pulled the lever last November must be found by an organizer, and get them to sign a paper. This will require repeated knocks on doors to find people who weren’t home the first time, but the process is already in place and aggressive organizing isn’t new to the left. With this threshold, Democrats will be able to collect signatures for Kapanke, Darling, Hopper, Olsen, Cowles, and Harsdorf. Senators Lazich and Grothman should be safe, in that they need 20,000+ signatures as opposed to the others who need roughly 15,000 (with the exception of Darling).

On the Republican side, as Tea Party activists push forward, look for a recall organizing strength of 50%. The intensity is still there as 37% of the total public strongly supports a recall, translating to approximately 74% of the Walker supporters. This number appears to be much higher than the support for past recalls, including the threatened recall of Jim Doyle which had much lower support among the public at large. With a recall strength of 50% look for Senators Holperin, Hansen, Wirch, and Lassa to be up for re-election this spring.

2) Timing

Expect the first of the recalls to submit the signatures near the end of this month, and most to submit their signatures in early April. Look for the GAB to begin certifying recalls in late April to early May, with nomination papers due in mid May. First Primaries will be held close to June 1 with the rest shortly following, and general elections July 1 and following.

3) Recall Elections

Look for ten senators to face a recall election this summer. However the modeling will determine the flips.

Probable flips Dem to GOP: Jim Holperin (12th – Eagle River). Holperin’s district went for Walker by 57% – even a 5 point shift won’t save him. 2008 Holperin only got 51% of the vote, making this the most likely to flip.

Tossups: Dan Kapanke (32nd-La Crosse). Kapanke lost his 2010 congressional run to long term incumbent Ron Kind by 10,000 votes. In 2008 he barely won with 51% of the vote, and Tom Barrett won his senate district with 50.52% of the vote. Look for this to be one of the two most aggressively fought recall races in the state.

Possible Dem flips to GOP: Dave Hansen (30-Green Bay), Robert Wirch (22-Kenosha), Julie Lassa (24-Stevens Point). All three are personally popular (winning in 2008 with 66-68% of the vote) but were in areas that went for Walker by 51-53% of the vote. Hansen and Wirch need less than 14,000 signatures to be up for a re-vote, and are probably the most vulnerable. Look for Lassa to skate by with a thin win.

Possible GOP flips to Dem. Alberta Darling (8-River Hills), Randy Hopper (18-Fond du Lac). Both barely won with 50-51% of the vote in 2008, but Scott Walker won their districts 54-57% of the vote. Look for a massive campaign in the 8th with Darling coming out ahead by a thin margin, and Hopper coming out with a slightly thicker margin.

Worst case scenarios? If we saw an 8 point swing in the electorate – look for Olsen, Cowles, and Harsdorf to face tough fights, but otherwise they can rest relatively easy.

Summary: Best guess GOP gains 1-3 seats and loses 1. Net result is flat to plus 2 for the GOP. Then again in a worst case scenario if we see a 7 point shift – look for GOP to gain 1 seat and lose 3 for a net loss of 2. GOP majority should still be intact, but the elusive quorum will be much more difficult to obtain.