February 8, 2011
November 1, 2010
2010 State Assembly: What to Watch Guide
Following up from my State Senate Guide, here’s my State Assembly guide. Take these picks for what they are, but this will be your guide to a GOP takeover in the Assembly. Under this scenario – these are the seats they have, will win big, win medium, win small, and have a shot at to takeover the Assembly.
50 seats lean GOP, 10 tossup, 39 lean Democrat. *- not incumbent; !-pickup
UPDATE: 61 GOP – 38 DEM (with Petryk’s lead and Ziegelbauer assumed to caucus as a Republican)
| Uncontested Republican
(15) |
Safe Republican
(19) |
Likely Republican
(7) |
Lean Republican
(9) |
Tossup
(10) |
Lean Democrat
(11) |
Likely Democrat
(3) |
Safe Democrat
(17) |
Uncontested Democrat (8) |
| 3 – A. Ott
6 – Tauchen 14 – *Kooyenga 23 – J. Ott 33 – *Kapenga 39 – Fitzgerald 53 – Spanbauer 55 – Kaufert 56 – *Litjens 58 – Strachota 59 -LeMahieu 60 – Gottlieb 63 – Vos 69 – Suder 82 – Stone |
24 – Knodl
27 – Kestell 30 – *Knudson 31 – Nass 34 – Meyer 38 – Kleefisch 40 – Petersen 41 – Ballweg 50 – Brooks 52 – *Thiesfeldt 66 – Kerkman 83 -Gunderson 84 – *Kuglitsch 86 – Petrowski 89 – Nygren 94 – Huebsch 97 – Kramer 98 – *Farrow 99 – Pridemore |
4 – *Weininger 58%
21 – Honadel 63% 29 – Murtha 62% 32 – *August 58% 35 – *Tiffany 58% 36 – Mursau 59% 90 – Karl Van Roy 58% |
1 – Bies 58%
2 – !*Jacque 62% 5 – !* Steineke 58% 28-!*Severson 58% 47 – Ripp 57% 67 – !*Larson 63% 87 – Williams 57% 92 – 96 – Nerison 61% |
15 – *Rieboldt/ Staskunas (D=51%)
25 – Ziegelbauer (I=50%) 26 – *!Endsley (R=49%)/ VanAkkeren 37 – *Milbraith/ Jorgenson (D=52%) 43 – *!Wynn (R=53%)/ Hixson 49 – *!Tranel (R=57%)/ Garthwaite 57 – *Hanson/ Schaber (D=53%) 62 – *Wright/ Mason (D=54%) 75 – !*Rivard (R=51%)/ Perala 88 – !*Klenke (R=51%)/ Soletski |
7 – Krusick 58%
42 – Clark 51% 45 – 51 – 54 – Hintz 57% 68 – 70 – Vruwink 53% 72 – 80 – !Ringhand (D=53%, old Brett Davis seat) 85 – Seidel 53% 93 – |
20 – Sinicki 53%
74 – Bewley 53% 91 – Danou 59% |
8 – Zamarripa
10 – Coggs 12 – Kessler 13 – Cullen 19 – Richards 22 – Pasch 44 – 46 – Hebl 48 – Parisi 61 – Turner 64 – Barca 71 – Molepske 73 – Milroy 76 – Berceau 77 – Hulsey 79 – Pope-Roberts 95 – Shilling |
9 – Zepnick
11 – Fields 16 – Young 17 – Toles 18 – Grigsby 65 – Steinbrink 78 – Pocan 81 – Helen Roys |
2010 WI State Senate Election Watch Guide
As everyone will be probably watching the congressional results to see how big of a GOP takeover will occur, some will be watching to see how well the GOP does in retaking the Wisconsin Assembly and Senate. Based on past partisan trends, 2006 matchups, campaign spending, ORVS numbers and more, here’s our projections (*-indicates non-incumbent):
First the Senate: 17 seats are needed for control
- 16 Not up this cycle: 8 Dems – 8 Reps
- + 2 Not contested: 8 Dems – 10 Reps
- Rich Zipperer, R-Pewaukee (33rd); Mike Ellis, R-Neenah (19th)
- + 4 Safe Seats: 10 Dems – 12 Reps
- Neal Kedzie, R-Elkhorn (11th=75%); Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau (13th=68%)
- Tim Carpenter, D-Milwaukee (3rd=52%); Jon Erpenbach, D-Waunakee (27th=62%)
- + 7 Probable Seats: 13 Dems – 16 Reps
- Joe Leibham, R-Sheboygan (9th=73%); *Frank Lasee, R-DePere (1st =60%), *Leah Vukmir, R-Wauwatosa (5th=54%), Dale Schultz, R-Richland Center (17th=63%)
- Chris Larson, D-Milwaukee (7th=57%); Bob Jauch, D-Poplar (25th=51%); Tim Cullen, D-Janesville (15th=59%)
- Tossups: GOP needs one of the 4 to takeover the State Senate
- Lehman/*Wanggaard (21st=53%) Racine
- Kreitlow/*Moulton (23rd=54%) Chippewa Falls
- Decker/*Galloway (29th=52%) Wausau
- Vinehout/*Thompson (31st=50%) Tomah
FINAL TALLY: GOP 19 – DEMS 14
