I’m not a Perry fan, but this ad is what TV ads are supposed to be – fast moving, dramatic, etc.
September 22, 2011
August 15, 2011
What to watch: Senate District 12: Jim Holperin v. Kim Simac
Overview: This is a big district covering parts of 11 counties. Unions have put in over $500,000 via direct independent expenditures into this race (MacIver).
The Closest: Simac v. Holperin is looking to be the closest race of the two Democratic recalls tomorrow. Red Racing Horses commissioned a poll and claims it is 51-49 for Holperin. Daily Kos is saying 55-41.
The Issue: Jim Holperin was one of the 14 senators who fled the state, and was caught by the Rockford Tea Party at the Clocktower Inn. Hence the recalls began as an attempt to force them to come back home.
The Good: Prosser won this district with 55.2%. Walker got 57%. And Holperin was barely re-elected in the landslide 2008 year with 51% of the vote.
The Questionable:
Independents: 43% of voters are Independents according to RRH, 39% according to DailyKos. It’s a very rural, independent area.
College vote: Unlike Harsdorf (UW-River Falls, UW-Stout), Hopper (UW-Oshkosh), or Kapanke (UW-La Crosse), Holperin’s district doesn’t have any UW System colleges. Even UW-Marinette – a two year campus – is just outside the district. So the absence of the predominantly Democrat student vote won’t help Kim Simac. In fact, this is the one Wisconsin district that the GOP wants during the school year.
That’s because the only college within the 12th Senate District is Northland International University in Dunbar, WI. With the support of conservatives affiliated with Northland, voters in Dunbar went for Scott Walker 85% to only 14% for Tom Barrett. This made Dunbar a solid 20 points more conservative than the next most conservative town in the district. However, with the students gone, will Dunbar be the force that Simac needs to pull out a win?
The Bad: Holperin is endorsed by the NRA – he does have a consistent pro-gun record. Can Simac convince voters that Holperin is out of touch when he has an “A” rating from the NRA?
The Expectation: 50,000 vote turnout is my guess based on other recalls turnout
Last Time:
The Counties:
Florence – GOP needs Turnout. Right on the border with the UP (Upper Peninsula) this GOP stronghold went 57% for Tiffany in 08, 65% for Walker, and 62% for Prosser. If Simac can get 900+ votes here, she can start building a margin of victory.
Forest – Holperin needs Turnout. 56% for Holperin in 2008. 53% for Walker, 56% for Prosser. High turnout elections – the county goes Democrat. Low turnout elections – the county goes Republican.
Langlade – GOP needs Turnout. Antigo is the county seat of the 4th most important county in the district. District went 54% for Tiffany against Holperin in 08, 61% for Walker, and 58% for Prosser. Turnout is important here. If total turnout is greater than 6,000 votes, Simac should be happy.
Lincoln – GOP needs Turnout. Second to watch after Oneida County, the county went slightly Republican in 08. If the margins go sharper GOP – will be a good night for Simac. Merrill is the county seat here.
Marathon – Just the outskirts of this county are in SD12, but they will tilt slightly conservative.
Marinette – Home to Northland International University, we’ll see if Dunbar can push the county into the Simac column.
Menominee – Holperin needs Turnout. Not the Menomonee Falls of Waukesha County that gave Darling the win. This county/Indian reservation went 86% for Holperin, 78% for Barrett, 63% for Kloppenburg. Turnout here could decide the election: 1,280 votes in Nov 08, 752 in Nov 10, and 382 in Apr 11. Low turnout will hurt Holperin – as the Republicans in this county turnout almost every election (177 in Nov 08, 141 in the “low turnout” April election). Democrat turnout ranges from 241 in April 11 to 1,103 in Nov 2008. Even though it is historically the lowest number of votes in the district, its intensity gives a margin of 200 votes to 1,000 votes to the Democrat, a margin that is needed if Holperin will stay.
Oconto – Just the far northwest fringe of this county is in the district. Fairly split.
Oneida – The Bellweather. 25% of the voters in SD12 live in Oneida County and Rhinelander is the county seat here. Went 55% for Walker, 52% for Prosser, but also went 54% for Holperin in 2008, giving Holperin 88% of his total margin of victory. Rhinelander has some of the most Democrat wards in the district outside of Menominee County, but can the strongly GOP Minocqua and the rest of the county offset Rhinelander? Watch the results election night here.
Shawano – Outlier parts of Shawano County are in the district, and while the county is strongly GOP, these wards went for Holperin with 54%.
Vilas – GOP needs to persuade. Ticket Splitters. Eagle River’s the county seat here, and the county went 62% for Walker, 60% for Prosser, but it went for Holperin by a scant 0.05%.
August 10, 2011
Benchmarking last night vs. April
The big story on 538 is that a statewide recall of Gov. Walker would be close.
Duh.
See April Re-election of Justice David Prosser. That was close.
But here’s the trend to watch:
- SD2 – Cowles +3 over Prosser
- SD8 – Darling -3 under Prosser
- SD10 – Harsdorf +10 over Prosser
- SD14 – Olsen -3 under Prosser
- SD18 – Hopper -4 under Prosser
- SD32 – Kapanke +3 over Prosser
3 candidates outperformed Prosser (1 exceptionally well!) and 3 candidates slightly underperformed. One of the underperformers was the Senator with personal problems that went public. Net result: +1% over Prosser. So if Walker did get up for a recall election – he’d win – and this time outside the margin of recount 
.
.August 8, 2011
Poll data: Wisconsin Recall voters who go with the majority – are going GOP
Digging thru the PPP poll results some interesting tidbits. A caveat: the data from the raw dumps they offer do not match up exactly to the numbers on the PPP summaries.
Before we post the dump of categories – let’s discuss the group that should be most analyzed. It’s not a specific ethnic/age demographic, but rather a trait of people. A unique breed of people that can sense the way the wind blows. Or maybe they just go with the current. Whatever reason – these are the people who are the ticket splitters but they go with the winner. They went Obama in ’08, Walker in ’10. Among the people who tend to pick winners – Luther Olsen is up 57-38.
How about the bad luck brigade – the ones that went McCain in ’08 and Walker in ’10? The people who want to spite the crowd, the ones who swim upstream? 59% Clark – 32% Olsen.
In Hopper’s district – 58-36 Hopper among the Obama/Walker ticket splitters.
Data junkies – help yourself
- In Luther Olsen’s District:
- 7% of people are Walker voters who now disapprove of Walker (Unfaithful).
- Among the Unfaithful: 78% support Clark – 17% support Olsen
- Among the Unfaithful: 43% approve of Obama, 48% disapprove
- 4.5% of people are Barrett voters who now approve of Walker (Converts).
- Among the Converts: 80% go Olsen, 18% go Clark
- 8% are Obama voters who also voted for Walker (Wave voters)
- Among the Wave voters: 57% go Olsen, 38% go Clark
- 4.5% are McCain voters who voted for Barrett (Contrarians)
- Among the Contrarians: 32% go Olsen, 59% go Clark
- Clark’s base: he gets 67% of the vote from twentysomething women
- Olsen’s base: he gets 57% of the vote from 65+ men
And – in case you haven’t seen this chart from MacIver, remember recalls aren’t cheap:
Another election?
If Fred Clark, Jennifer Shilling, or Sandy Pasch wins any of their recalls on August 9, it will likely take a week or more to certify the result, so sometime mid-August they will resign their Assembly seat to take their new Senate seat.
Meaning that there may be vacant Assembly District(s), requiring a special election to fill the Assembly seat(s).
Thus:
- August 23rdish – the Governor would call for a special election
- September 6th – filing deadline for special election
- October 4th – primary for the special election
- November 1st – special election general
This year in Wisconsin, we’ll have had 9 different election dates in February, April, May, July, August, October, and November.
July 24, 2011
Anders Behring Berivik is not a Christian Fundamentalist
“We are not sure whether he was alone or had help,” a police official, Roger Andresen, said at a televised news conference. “What we know is that he is right-wing and a Christian fundamentalist.” -NYTimes
Before everyone wants to call this guy a “Christian fundamentalist” – and most people realize that Christians of any sort aren’t the sort to go on rampages of mass murder, but for sake of argument let’s continue – let’s look at what he actually wrote:
Admittedly Contradicts “Biblical Teachings”
First, he explicitly authorizes “sexual stimuli” and “any and all methods that will contribute to keep your moral and motivation up” for this mission of blowing up buildings and killing people.
p.836 - Breivik's European Declaration of Independence
If you have met any Christian fundamentalists (or heard about them on A Prairie Home Companion), they may differ on many things but they’re not big on publicly encouraging “sexual stimuli.” Some individual Christian fundamentalists may have fallen into such things, but they don’t proclaim it as “permitted and even encouraged.” And Berivik picks up on the problem that it poses:
p.836 - Breivik's European Declaration of Independence
For those new to church history, fundamentalist Christianity is rather simple – its about the fundamentals of Christianity – mainly, the Bible. In fact the World Congress of Fundamentalists (yes there is such a thing) is sponsored by the International Testimony to an Infallible Bible. So – for people to label someone who calls for “certain measures [that] are obviously in violation to biblical teachings” as a “Christian fundamentalist” is not an appropriate use of the English language.
Supports the Protestant church “being absorbed by Catholicism”
If there is a second defining factor about fundamentalist Christians after a belief in an inerrant, infallible Biblical revelation, it is that of ecclesiastical separation (the belief that they cannot in good conscience worship together with certain groups due to theological differences). Out of a quest for purity they believe in ecclesiastical separation from Roman Catholics, mainline Protestants, and even Southern Baptists!
So, let’s look at the religious views of Berivik:
p.1388 - Breivik's Declaration of European Independence
While fundamentalists may be in favor of a second Protestant Reformation, they would not be wanting to be part of a unified Catholic-Protestant church. This is not because of any anti-Catholic bias, but the fact that Christian Fundamentalists have theological differences with Catholics AND many Protestants.
And by the way – the guy describes himself as “moderately religious.” Again not a typical trait of Christian fundamentalists (they tend to be at church four times a year).
Finally – let’s look at his coalition:
p. 1346
Breivik is highly optimistic about the size of his coalition – and it includes pretty much everyone. A bit broader than your typical Christian Fundamentalist group.
Focus on pre-Christian Viking Era
Breivik draws emphasis to the pre-Christian roots of his name, that is a sense of pride for him. Obviously, pre-Christian eras aren’t usually a focus of fundamentalist Christians:
p.1390 - Breivik's Declaration of European Independence
Atheist members of his group
Breivik lists the members of his group the “Pauperes commilitones Christi Templique Solomonici” – a revived Knights Templar – that held two meetings in London in April 2002.
p.807 - Breivik's Declaration of European Independence
Some things stick out from this document – such as the idea of a “English Christian atheist” or a “Dutch Christian agnostic.” Most people would agree that to be a Christian one has to believe in God. However, Breivik appears to have a group of CINO’s (Christians In Name Only) of whom only a bare majority actually believe in the existence of God. Not exactly a hotbed of Christian fundamentalism.
In fact he says that to be a member of his group you must be a Christian, a Christian agnostic, or a Christian atheist! If I may humbly propose an idea – Christian fundamentalists don’t believe in Christian atheists…
p. 1350 - Breivik's Declaration of European Independence
Christian fundamentalism, as well as the broader Christian evangelicalism, would strongly disagree with the statement “The cultural factors are more important than your personal relationship with God, Jesus or the holy spirit.” In contrast, the early fundamentalist evangelist Billy Sunday stated that “Going to church doesn’t make you any more a Christian than going to the garage makes you a car.”
Breivik disavows a belief in a personal relationship with God
Finally, Breivik states that a “Christian Fundamentalist theocracy” is “everything we do not want.”
p. 1361 of Breivik's Manifesto
Most Christian fundamentalists are not interested in a “theocracy” – but Breivik understands the difference between his view of a “cultural heritage” as opposed to “a personal relationship with God or Jesus” – something that is a core tenant of not just fundamentalist Christianity but of evangelicalism and other Christian groups as well.
Breivik is not a fundamentalist Christian by any means. He even admits to not being a religious Christian.
p.1297 - Breivik's Manifesto
While people are free to call themselves ”Christian” – it is dishonest to call Breivik a “fundamentalist Christian.” In fact, he admits to being a “Christian” for purely pragmatic reasons.
p.1370 of Breivik's Manifesto
Obviously Breivik has a few screws loose when he believes it is morally justifiable to kill almost a hundred people. However, it should be equally obvious that he is not a Christian Fundamentalist, or any type of Christian at all (even if you accept the term “Christian atheist”).
July 10, 2011
Prosser is still his own man
In spite of all the acrimony on the Supreme Court – this opinion just came out 2 days ago:
2008AP2765-CR (2011 WI 62)
State v. David D. Funk – The decision of the court of appeals is reversed.
Author: Justice Patience Drake Roggensack
Chief Justice Shirley S. Abrahamson dissents – opinion filed.
Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, Chief Justice Shirley S. Abrahamson and Justice David T. Prosser, (joining Part II) dissent – opinion filed.
David T. Prosser dissents – opinion filed.
Note: Bradley and Abrahamson dissent – joined by…. Prosser! You may not like the guy, but he is the centermost justice on the bench. Whether he should be more to the left or more to the right is something we can debate on.
Interestingly – the Supreme Court list of justices is an interesting depiction of the political leanings from left to right…
Finally: a way for those who want to remove Justice Abrahamsom (from her own writings no less!):
In 1977 the constitution was amended to provide that the legislature might prescribe by law a retirement age of not less than seventy years. The legislature has not, to date, enacted a mandatory retirement age for justices.
The Chief Justice is 77.
Oops – one final quote (also from Portraits of Justice) on Wisconsin’s First Supreme Court Chief Justice:
Stow was known as an eccentric man. It was often told that he preferred his meat well ripened before he cooked it. He would hang chickens outside his bedroom window until the legs and bills turned green and the odor of decay pervaded his house.
Stow never married; he died September 14, 1854.
I wonder if there is a cause and effect between the two paragraphs…
July 8, 2011
Redistricting: Most of Menomonee Falls gets a new State Rep.
Most of Menomonee Falls will have a new State Representative – Rep. Don Pridemore, if the redistricting map goes thru. Dan Knodl will continue to represent Germantown and now Brown Deer and River Hills. Don Pridemore will now have the 22nd instead of the 29th, and will take most of Menomonee Falls.
June 29, 2011
Election Watch
| Date | SD – Location | Incumbent | Opponent | Trends |
| July 19 | 30 – Green Bay | Dave Hansen (D) | David Vanderleest (R) | Dem Hold Prosser won with 52.1% Hansen 62- Vander 34 (DK) Hansen 66 – Vander 34 |
| Aug 9 | 2 – Shawano | Robert Cowles (R) | Nancy Nusbaum (D) | GOP Hold Prosser won with 57.6%. Cowles 51 – Nusbaum 47 (DK) Cowles +5 (WAW) Cowles 60 – Nusbaum 40 |
| Aug 9 | 8 – Mequon | Alberta Darling (R) | Sandy Pasch (D) | GOP Hold Prosser won with 57.4% Pasch 47 – Darling 46 (MG) Darling 52 – Pasch 47 (DK) Darling +4 (WAW) Darling 54 – Pasch 46 |
| Aug 9 | 10 – River Falls | Sheila Harsdorf (R) | Shelly Moore (D) | GOP Hold Harsdorf 50 – Moore 45 (DK Jun) Harsdorf +5 (WAW) Harsdorf 54 – Moore 42 (DK Aug) Prosser lost with 48.6% Harsdorf 58 – Moore 42 |
| Aug 9 | 14 – Ripon | Luther Olsen (R) | Fred Clark (D) | GOP Hold Fred: the bike & the smack Prosser won with 54.6% Clark 49 Olsen 47 (DK Jun) Clark 49 Olsen 46 (MG) Olsen 50 Clark 47 (DK Aug) Olsen +4 (WAW) Olsen 52 – Clark 48 |
| Aug 9 | 18 – Oshk/FDL | Randy Hopper (R) | Jessica King (D) | DEM PICKUP King 50 – Hopper 47 (DK Jun) King 50 – Hopper 48 (Mag) Hopper 49 – King 48 (DK Aug) King +8 (WAW) Prosser won with 53.0% King 51 – Hopper 49 |
| Aug 9 | 32 – La Crosse | Dan Kapanke (R) | Jennifer Shilling (D) | DEM Pickup Shilling 56 – Kap 42 (DK June) Shilling 54 – Kap 43 (DK Aug) Shilling +14 (WAW) Prosser lost with 42.2% Shilling 55 – Kapanke 45 |
| Aug 16 | 12 – Eagle River | Jim Holperin (D) | Kim Simac (R) Simac 59 – Lussow 41 |
Too Close to Call Prosser won with 55.2% Holperin +5 (WAW) Holperin 55 Simac 41 (DK) Holperin 51 Simac 49 (WAA) |
| Aug 16 | 22 – Kenosha | Robert Wirch (D) | Jonathan Steitz (R) Steitz 64 – Ekornaas 36 |
Lean Dem Walker ’10, Klopp ’11 Prosser lost with 48.4% Wirch +10 (WAW) Wirch 55 Steitz 42 (DK) |
June 28, 2011
The Republished Bill
Not sure this has ever happened before in Wisconsin, but we have a re-published Act with the Budget Repair Bill (Act 10)…
And the footnote at the bottom
