RandyMelchert.com

June 21, 2011

Why Constitutional Carry Failed

Filed under: Second Amendment — randallmelchert @ 8:53 pm

State Rep. Don Pridemore emailed out results of his survey he conducted. 75-80% of the respondents were down the line conservative. Until you got to the issue of concealed carry.

Question #9 – When asked, “Do you support legislation giving law-abiding citizens the right to carry a concealed handgun?” the responses were:

18% of people said, “Yes, but only if neither training nor permitting is required.”
26% of people said, “Yes, but only if training is required and no permitting.”
39% of people said, “Yes, but only if both training and permitting is required.”
21% of people said, “No, regardless of whether there is a training or permitting process involved.”

This is the 99th Assembly District, where it skews very conservative. Very, very conservative. The survey arguably reflects the extremes more than the moderates (if you don’t care about politics, are you going to fill out a survey?). This survey is overweighted to Republicans (Do you really think a GOP Rep will respond to your Dem Survey?). But roughly 3/4 of the fiscal conservatives are opposed to Constitutional Carry.

This is in spite of the State GOP two years in a row backing Constitutional Carry. In spite of almost 80% of the Republican Caucus backing CC. The CC crowd has a serious education problem within the party if in Hartford and Sussex 75% of Conservative Republicans are opposed to Constitutional Carry. If we can’t get the base to back it, good luck GOP’ers in swing districts….

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June 19, 2011

Tea Party: Neutral in ’10, liability in ’12?

Filed under: Milwaukee Tea Party — randallmelchert @ 9:31 pm

Here’s a controversial thesis: being a “tea party” candidate in 2010 was neutral but being a tea party candidate in 2012 will be a liability?

Most people think the “tea party” was responsible for the massive wins in 2010 and point to Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. But Rand Paul benefited to the millions from his relationship to the subject of libertarian money-bombers – again presidential candidate Ron Paul. Marco Rubio got his initial boost from – Mike Huckabee! For each “tea party” candidate who won, a Christine O’Donnell or a Sharon Angle or a Tom Tancredo lost. Here in Wisconsin Dave Westlake who received the support of 90%-98% of the organized tea parties – received barely 10% in the September primary.

However, polls leading up to November 2010 showed the national populace split 37-37 on whether they supported the tea party with 26% unsure (http://www.pollingreport.com/politics.htm). So such a thesis may have support.

Looking at polls in aggregate – tea party unfavorability is at 47% with only 35% favorable. That means (assuming equal voter turnout) a candidate has to win over 83% of the undecideds to win a race. Even in safe GOP areas where the base is all that matters – barely one out of 4 Republicans would be more likely to support a tea party candidate. Among independents – for every vote you gain, you would lose two if you ran as a Tea Party Movement candidate.

Why is the “tea party movement” trending toxic barely two years after it’s conception?

Is it internal factors such as that roughly 30% support it, but only 2% have given a dime to help it? Is it that for every tea party supporter that gave anything financial – another four believe they do their part by clicking the “Take Action” link in their emails? or that eleven haven’t even done that?

Or is it external – that the 30% of people who support the tea party have allowed for a de facto echo chamber to form on the right, resulting in the fact that virtually all tea party haters believe the tea party movement is racist, virtually all tea party supporters disagree – but somehow the anti-TP’ers get the undecided middle to shift to the left? Is this because of a lack of a debate in the public square and instead an insularizing of the “tea party”?

Either way it will be interesting if any significant candidate at any level will self-identify with the tea party movement or if the “smart money” will lead to the term disappearing from vogue almost as fast as it came. Perhaps the new term – will not be a new term – but just people returning to the old term.

Conservative.

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June 14, 2011

Wisconsin’s Perpetual Campaign

Filed under: Wisconsin Events — randallmelchert @ 7:20 pm

Just to keep track of all the elections, recounts, protests, etc:

February 14, 2011 – The 2011 Wisconsin protests begin
February 15,2011 – {SupCt Primary} non-partisan primary for Supreme Court, others
April 5, 2011 – {SupCt Election} non-partisan election for Supreme Court, others
April 5, 2011 – {Walker’s staff replace} special election primary for Assembly Districts 60, 83, 94
April 20, 2011 – Kloppenburg asks, Supreme Count Recount process begins
May 3, 2011 – {Walker’s staff replace} special election general for Assembly Districts 60, 83, 94
May 31, 2011 – Kloppenburg Concedes, effectively ending Supreme Court recount
June 14, 2011 – Wisconsin Supreme Court overturns Judge Sumi’s ruling, allowing BRB to effect
July 12, 2011 – {Dane Co Exec replace} special election primary for Assembly District 48
July 12, 2011 – {Republican recall} recall election primary/general for Senate Districts 2, 8, 10, 14, 18, 32
July 19, 2011 – {Democrat recall} recall election primary/general for Senate Districts 12, 22, 30
August 9, 2011 – {Dane Co Exec replace} special election general for Assembly District 48
August 9, 2011 – {Republican recall} recall election general (if necessary) for Senate Districts 2, 8, 10, 14, 18, 32
August 16, 2011 – {Democrat recall} recall election general (if necessary) for Senate Districts 12, 22, 30

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May 23, 2011

Menomonee Falls School Board passes teacher union contract

Filed under: Menomonee Falls — randallmelchert @ 11:55 pm

Packed house at Menomonee Falls Village Hall

The Menomonee Falls School District met tonight to approve a two year contract with the Menomonee Falls Education Association (Agenda PDF).

Mark Belling opened his program talking about the communities that extend their contracts for two years to preserve collective bargaining (MP3). He invited Keith Marty, current superintendent of the Menomonee Falls School District to come on the program, and explain the district’s position.

As a result of the show, hundreds of citizens jam packed the Menomonee Falls Village Hall where the school board met at 7 PM. So many packed the hall that overflow crowds were sent to the library, and Menomonee Falls Police were stationed at the doors.

A citizen rises to speak to the school board

The board heard from dozens of citizens, and received multiple written comments. Citizens continued to debate the issue with the board even after the “public comment” was over. After it appeared a compromise might come out to have a one week delay on the bill to allow board members to read the bill, board president Kathy Shurilla explained her view, and asked for board members to explain their positions. All but one member explained their point of view before the vote.

After the board voted unanimously to approve the contracts, citizens started shouting “Shame, Shame” as they walked out.